Alan's 2006 Oscar Predictions

17 out of 24.  That's a 70%.  Horrible as usual.  I'm really not good at predicting The Oscars.  I don't know why I don't do better.  You'd think, as a huge film buff, I'd have a clue - but apparently I don't.  

We also lost the Fisher \ Wiseman AMPPy again just like last year.  Score 3 to 1.

Best Picture (Wrong!)
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Might Win: Crash
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Did Win:  Crash

Best Director
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee
Might Win: Crash, Paul Haggis
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee
Did Win:  Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee

Best Actor 
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Might Win: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Did Win:  Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: George Clooney, Syriana
Might Win: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man, Matt Dillon, Crash
Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Did Win:  George Clooney, Syriana

Best Actress
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Might Win: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Did Win:  Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Might Win: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Did Win:  Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener

Best Screenplay (original)
Will Win: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
Might Win: George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
Should Win: Woody Allen, Match Point or Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Did Win:  Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash

Best Screenplay (adaptation) 
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Might Win: Capote
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Did Win:  Brokeback Mountain

Cinematography (Wrong!)
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Might Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Did Win:  Memoirs of a Geisha

Visual Effects
Will Win: King Kong
Might Win: Not Really Any Other Choice
Should Win: King Kong
Did Win:  King Kong

Costume Design
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Might Win: None of the other nominees really had much in the way of costumes
Should Win: I have no opinion
Did Win:  Memoirs of a Geisha

Sound Mixing (Wrong!)
Will Win: Walk the Line
Might Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong
Did Win:  King Kong

Original Song (Wrong!)
Will Win: "In the Deep," Crash
Might Win: "It's Hard out Here for a Pimp," Hustle & Flow
Should Win: Don't Care
Did Win:  "It's Hard out Here for a Pimp," Hustle & Flow

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Might Win: Not Really Any Other Choice
Should Win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Did Win:  Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: March of the Penguins
Might Win: Murderball
Should Win: March of the Penguins
Did Win:  March of the Penguins

Film Editing 
Will Win: Crash
Might Win: Cinderella Man
Should Win: Cinderella Man
Did Win:  Crash

Art Direction
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Might Win: Good Night, and Good Luck or King Kong
Should Win: I have no opinion
Did Win:  Memoirs of a Geisha

Makeup 
Will Win: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Might Win: Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith
Should Win: Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith
Did Win:  The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

Sound Editing 
Will Win: King Kong
Might Win: War of the Worlds
Should Win: King Kong
Did Win:  King Kong

Original Score (Wrong!)
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Might Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Did Win:  Brokeback Mountain

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Tsotsi
Might Win: Paradise Now
Should Win: I have no opinion
Did Win:  Tsotsi

Best Documentary Short Subject (Wrong!)
Will Win: The Mushroom Club
Might Win: The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
Should Win: I have no opinion
Did Win:  Note of Triumph 

Best Animated Short Film 
Will Win: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
Might Win: 9
Should Win: I have no opinion
Did Win:  The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation

Best Live Action Short Film (Wrong!)
Will Win: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Might Win: Our Time Is Up
Should Win: I have no opinion
Did Win:  Six Shooter